Adopted March 2024. Three 2030 benchmarks: 10% extraction inside EU, 40% processing inside EU, 25% recycled. The 40% processing target is the most demanding and most consequential for Brazil as a potential processing-hub partner. The CRMA caps single-country dependency at 65% — directly targeting China's refining dominance.
The EU-Mercosur agreement reduces or eliminates tariffs on approximately 90% of bilateral trade. For critical minerals — including lithium compounds, graphite products and specialty alloys — tariff reductions are particularly meaningful. Named explicitly in coverage: lithium and graphite as Brazilian strategic exports to Europe.
In 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce set preliminary countervailing duties of up to 721% on Chinese active anode material (AAM). Anti-dumping duties reached 93.5% additionally. The action effectively doubles or more the landed cost of Chinese AAM for U.S. customers and creates structural demand for non-Chinese graphite — including Brazilian supply.
Signed April 2025. Directs U.S. agencies to accelerate development of seabed mineral resources, specifically identifying nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese. The Rio Grande Rise off the Brazilian coast is among the active areas of commercial interest for polymetallic nodules.
February 2025: DRC banned cobalt exports. October 2025: replaced with quotas — 18,125 tonnes for remainder of 2025, up to 96,600 tonnes/year in 2026–2027. Congo produces 73% of global cobalt (approximately 230,000 of 310,000 tonnes in 2025).
April 2025: China imposed export controls on seven heavy rare earths. October 2025: expanded to five additional elements plus processing equipment. February 2025: new export controls on tungsten items, pushing Rotterdam tungsten prices from US$266 to US$551 per MTU across the year.
CSIS's 2025 framework argues the next decade of critical-minerals geopolitics will be decided by who processes ore, not just who extracts it. China holds approximately 90% of rare-earth separation, 94% of sintered permanent magnets, 90% of graphite spheronisation. Brazil is positioning to participate in midstream processing rather than remaining a pure raw-material exporter.