about two-thirds of global supply. That is not an anomaly: Indonesia has
roughly 62 million tonnes of nickel reserves, the largest in the world,
and its output grew 13 percent in 2025 while most rivals contracted. For
position is essential context.¹
production at approximately 2,310,000 tonnes of contained nickel in
year-on-year increase.¹ Indonesia's share of global nickel production is
therefore now approximately 67 percent, with the remaining supply
distributed across the Philippines, Russia, Canada, China, New
Caledonia, Australia, Brazil and a handful of smaller producers.
The scale is without precedent in the nickel industry's modern history.
the Philippines, and a more diversified set of producers — Russia,
global demand. The shift toward Indonesian dominance has occurred in
roughly seven years, driven by coordinated policy, foreign direct
investment and the economic scale of the country's laterite resources.
export ban on unprocessed nickel ore, reinstated with modifications in
capacity rather than export raw material. That policy converted
overnight.
battery-supply-chain firms committed substantial capital to Indonesian
smelting and high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities, often through
joint ventures with Indonesian state-owned and private companies. Those
facilities converted Indonesian laterite ores into class-2 nickel for
stainless steel and, increasingly, class-1 nickel sulfate for battery
applications.
enormous, and the HPAL technology that unlocks class-1 nickel from
laterites has matured substantially during the past decade. HPAL
operations that were considered risky in 2015 are now among the most
cost-competitive nickel producers globally, and Indonesia hosts most of
them.
The counterpart to Indonesian growth was sharp contraction elsewhere.
roughly 98,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes, as multiple mines entered
care-and-maintenance in response to sustained low nickel prices.¹
to 270,000 tonnes, after the provincial government of Palawan announced
a 50-year ban on new mining permits. Existing Philippine operations
continue, but future investment is constrained.
nickel assets during 2024-2025. Some of those closures were cyclical,
responding directly to the low-price environment; others reflect a
structural reassessment that Australian sulfide nickel deposits are
increasingly difficult to compete with Indonesian laterite economics at
prevailing price levels.
contraction is that the global nickel market is more concentrated now
than at any time in recent memory. Indonesian dominance is not yet at
the level Congo holds in cobalt or China in rare-earth refining, but the
trajectory is in the same direction.
the middle of the supply ranking. Brazil has the fourth-largest reserves
at approximately 16 million tonnes, after Indonesia, Australia and
shapes the economic environment in which Brazilian producers operate.
toward the lower half of the producer cost curve. Vale's Brazilian
operations are cost-competitive in this environment, but newer Brazilian
entrants — including junior exploration companies and project developers
levels that reward scale and integrated operations over standalone
greenfield assets.
increasingly acceptable in Western battery supply chains, but concerns
about the HPAL operations' carbon and environmental footprint persist in
produced to higher ESG standards — particularly at long-operating
sulfide assets and at Vale's refineries in Canada — may command a
premium when the final battery-sourcing rules under the EU Critical Raw
are finalised.
explicitly calls for development of seabed mineral deposits, including
polymetallic nodules and ferromanganese crusts that contain nickel. A
approximately 4.5 billion tonnes of nickel — more than ten times current
terrestrial reserves.¹